Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Total (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 43 | — |
0.2485
best
|
— |
0.6901
best
|
0.615
−0.030
|
| Bookmaker | 41 | — |
0.2491
+0.0007
|
— |
0.6914
+0.0013
|
0.609
−0.036
|
| Pinnacle | 41 | — |
0.2492
+0.0008
|
— |
0.6916
+0.0015
|
0.645
best
|
| Circa | 42 | — |
0.2500
+0.0015
|
— |
0.6931
+0.0031
|
|
| BetOnline | 42 | — |
0.2506
+0.0022
|
— |
0.6944
+0.0043
|
0.308
−0.337
|
| DraftKings | 43 | — |
0.2508
+0.0023
|
— |
0.6948
+0.0047
|
0.500
−0.145
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026