Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Moneyline (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker | 63 |
0.2281
best
|
0.2333
best
|
0.6482
best
|
0.6592
best
|
0.635
−0.042
|
| DraftKings | 64 |
0.2312
+0.0031
|
0.2334
+0.0001
|
0.6546
+0.0064
|
0.6595
+0.0002
|
0.672
−0.006
|
| FanDuel | 64 |
0.2298
+0.0016
|
0.2336
+0.0002
|
0.6515
+0.0032
|
0.6598
+0.0006
|
0.667
−0.011
|
| Circa | 64 |
0.2294
+0.0012
|
0.2338
+0.0005
|
0.6508
+0.0026
|
0.6604
+0.0012
|
0.677
best
|
| Pinnacle | 64 |
0.2308
+0.0026
|
0.2338
+0.0005
|
0.6536
+0.0053
|
0.6604
+0.0012
|
0.672
−0.006
|
| BetOnline | 64 |
0.2301
+0.0019
|
0.2350
+0.0016
|
0.6523
+0.0041
|
0.6628
+0.0036
|
0.672
−0.006
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026