Sportsbook Efficiency

Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.

League: NBA NHL MLB WNBA NFL

MLB — Pitcher Hits Allowed (30 Days)

As of 2026-10-27
Bookmaker # Markets Brier Open Brier Close Log-Loss Open Log-Loss Close Hit Rate
DraftKings 85
0.2541
best
0.2547
best
0.7015
best
0.7026
best
0.471
best
BetOnline 87
0.2570
+0.0028
0.2560
+0.0013
0.7071
+0.0057
0.7052
+0.0027
0.471
best

Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026