Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Total (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 52 |
0.2442
best
|
0.2476
best
|
0.6815
best
|
0.6883
best
|
0.551
best
|
| Circa | 49 | — |
0.2502
+0.0026
|
— |
0.6936
+0.0053
|
0.514
−0.038
|
| BetOnline | 48 | — |
0.2531
+0.0055
|
— |
0.6993
+0.0110
|
0.362
−0.189
|
| DraftKings | 48 | — |
0.2534
+0.0058
|
— |
0.6999
+0.0116
|
0.383
−0.168
|
| Bookmaker | 47 | — |
0.2542
+0.0066
|
— |
0.7015
+0.0132
|
0.395
−0.156
|
| Pinnacle | 48 | — |
0.2550
+0.0074
|
— |
0.7032
+0.0148
|
0.426
−0.125
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026