Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Total (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 838 |
0.2493
best
|
0.2498
best
|
0.6918
best
|
0.6928
best
|
0.506
best
|
| DraftKings | 810 |
0.2495
+0.0001
|
0.2499
+0.0001
|
0.6920
+0.0003
|
0.6930
+0.0001
|
0.494
−0.012
|
| Circa | 819 |
0.2502
+0.0009
|
0.2500
+0.0002
|
0.6935
+0.0017
|
0.6932
+0.0004
|
0.504
−0.002
|
| Pinnacle | 815 |
0.2502
+0.0009
|
0.2502
+0.0003
|
0.6936
+0.0018
|
0.6935
+0.0006
|
0.503
−0.003
|
| BetOnline | 819 |
0.2496
+0.0003
|
0.2505
+0.0007
|
0.6924
+0.0006
|
0.6942
+0.0013
|
0.479
−0.027
|
| Bookmaker | 818 |
0.2502
+0.0009
|
0.2506
+0.0007
|
0.6935
+0.0017
|
0.6943
+0.0014
|
0.497
−0.009
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026