Sportsbook Efficiency

Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.

League: NBA NHL MLB WNBA NFL

MLB — Batter Total Bases (90 Days)

As of 2026-10-27
Bookmaker # Markets Brier Open Brier Close Log-Loss Open Log-Loss Close Hit Rate
BetOnline 14442
0.2378
best
0.2416
best
0.6684
best
0.6761
best
0.578
best
DraftKings 10033
0.2522
+0.0144
0.2523
+0.0107
0.6987
+0.0303
0.6988
+0.0227
0.561
−0.018

Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026