Sportsbook Efficiency

Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.

League: NBA NHL MLB WNBA NFL

MLB — Batter Total Bases (All Time)

As of 2026-10-27
Bookmaker # Markets Brier Open Brier Close Log-Loss Open Log-Loss Close Hit Rate
BetOnline 38354
0.2386
best
0.2414
best
0.6700
best
0.6757
best
0.579
best
DraftKings 27880
0.2501
+0.0115
0.2503
+0.0089
0.6942
+0.0242
0.6945
+0.0188
0.564
−0.015

Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026