Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Pitcher Earned Runs (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 4231 |
0.2467
best
|
0.2463
best
|
0.6865
best
|
0.6858
best
|
0.550
best
|
| DraftKings | 4178 |
0.2475
+0.0008
|
0.2466
+0.0002
|
0.6881
+0.0016
|
0.6862
+0.0004
|
0.546
−0.004
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026