Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Moneyline (All Time)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 720 |
0.1918
+0.0026
|
0.1852
best
|
0.5651
+0.0063
|
0.5497
best
|
0.708
−0.000
|
| Bookmaker | 716 |
0.1896
+0.0004
|
0.1862
+0.0010
|
0.5598
+0.0010
|
0.5526
+0.0030
|
0.707
−0.001
|
| Circa | 716 |
0.1897
+0.0005
|
0.1867
+0.0014
|
0.5601
+0.0013
|
0.5530
+0.0034
|
0.708
best
|
| DraftKings | 715 |
0.1897
+0.0005
|
0.1867
+0.0014
|
0.5599
+0.0011
|
0.5535
+0.0039
|
0.708
−0.000
|
| BetOnline | 716 |
0.1921
+0.0029
|
0.1870
+0.0018
|
0.5658
+0.0070
|
0.5543
+0.0046
|
0.705
−0.003
|
| FanDuel | 709 |
0.1892
best
|
0.1880
+0.0027
|
0.5588
best
|
0.5568
+0.0072
|
0.702
−0.006
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026