Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Moneyline (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 43 | — |
0.1891
best
|
— |
0.5578
best
|
0.721
best
|
| FanDuel | 43 | — |
0.1900
+0.0009
|
— |
0.5600
+0.0021
|
0.714
−0.007
|
| Pinnacle | 43 | — |
0.1907
+0.0016
|
— |
0.5614
+0.0035
|
0.698
−0.023
|
| Circa | 43 | — |
0.1908
+0.0018
|
— |
0.5615
+0.0036
|
0.721
best
|
| BetOnline | 43 | — |
0.1910
+0.0020
|
— |
0.5625
+0.0047
|
0.698
−0.023
|
| Bookmaker | 43 | — |
0.1911
+0.0020
|
— |
0.5618
+0.0040
|
0.698
−0.023
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026