Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Spread (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 52 |
0.2479
best
|
0.2460
best
|
0.6890
best
|
0.6852
best
|
0.707
best
|
| DraftKings | 52 |
0.2514
+0.0034
|
0.2492
+0.0031
|
0.6959
+0.0069
|
0.6915
+0.0063
|
0.610
−0.098
|
| Pinnacle | 50 |
0.2508
+0.0029
|
0.2494
+0.0034
|
0.6948
+0.0058
|
0.6920
+0.0068
|
0.512
−0.195
|
| Bookmaker | 50 |
0.2512
+0.0032
|
0.2495
+0.0034
|
0.6955
+0.0065
|
0.6921
+0.0069
|
0.528
−0.180
|
| BetOnline | 51 |
0.2512
+0.0033
|
0.2498
+0.0038
|
0.6956
+0.0065
|
0.6928
+0.0076
|
0.514
−0.193
|
| Circa | 51 |
0.2500
+0.0021
|
0.2500
+0.0040
|
0.6931
+0.0041
|
0.6932
+0.0080
|
0.500
−0.207
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026