Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Spread (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 43 | — |
0.2460
best
|
— |
0.6851
best
|
0.706
best
|
| DraftKings | 43 | — |
0.2487
+0.0027
|
— |
0.6905
+0.0054
|
0.611
−0.095
|
| Pinnacle | 41 | — |
0.2494
+0.0034
|
— |
0.6919
+0.0068
|
0.500
−0.206
|
| Bookmaker | 41 | — |
0.2498
+0.0038
|
— |
0.6928
+0.0076
|
0.519
−0.187
|
| Circa | 42 | — |
0.2500
+0.0040
|
— |
0.6932
+0.0080
|
0.500
−0.206
|
| BetOnline | 42 | — |
0.2502
+0.0042
|
— |
0.6936
+0.0084
|
0.467
−0.239
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026