Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Assists (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 428 |
0.2421
+0.0035
|
0.2414
best
|
0.6767
+0.0074
|
0.6758
best
|
0.598
best
|
| BetOnline | 491 |
0.2450
+0.0065
|
0.2448
+0.0034
|
0.6832
+0.0139
|
0.6828
+0.0070
|
0.567
−0.031
|
| FanDuel | 431 |
0.2385
best
|
0.2451
+0.0037
|
0.6692
best
|
0.6834
+0.0076
|
0.571
−0.026
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026