Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Rebounds (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 575 |
0.2461
+0.0018
|
0.2458
best
|
0.6854
+0.0036
|
0.6847
best
|
0.579
best
|
| FanDuel | 562 |
0.2480
+0.0036
|
0.2466
+0.0008
|
0.6889
+0.0071
|
0.6863
+0.0016
|
0.567
−0.013
|
| DraftKings | 552 |
0.2444
best
|
0.2470
+0.0012
|
0.6818
best
|
0.6871
+0.0024
|
0.555
−0.025
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026