Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Points (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 599 |
0.2502
+0.0012
|
0.2476
best
|
0.6935
+0.0026
|
0.6883
best
|
0.550
best
|
| BetOnline | 609 |
0.2489
best
|
0.2497
+0.0022
|
0.6909
best
|
0.6926
+0.0043
|
0.522
−0.027
|
| FanDuel | 606 |
0.2498
+0.0008
|
0.2507
+0.0031
|
0.6926
+0.0017
|
0.6945
+0.0062
|
0.489
−0.061
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026