Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Points (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 10564 |
0.2495
+0.0024
|
0.2492
best
|
0.6921
+0.0049
|
0.6916
best
|
0.521
best
|
| FanDuel | 10763 |
0.2471
best
|
0.2495
+0.0003
|
0.6873
best
|
0.6922
+0.0006
|
0.518
−0.003
|
| BetOnline | 10304 |
0.2491
+0.0020
|
0.2496
+0.0004
|
0.6913
+0.0040
|
0.6924
+0.0009
|
0.519
−0.003
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026