Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — 3-Pointers Made (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 8990 |
0.2413
best
|
0.2416
best
|
0.6754
best
|
0.6760
best
|
0.576
−0.002
|
| FanDuel | 7730 |
0.2434
+0.0021
|
0.2421
+0.0006
|
0.6797
+0.0043
|
0.6772
+0.0012
|
0.577
best
|
| DraftKings | 7983 |
0.2436
+0.0023
|
0.2435
+0.0019
|
0.6802
+0.0048
|
0.6800
+0.0040
|
0.567
−0.010
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026