Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — 3-Pointers Made (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 583 |
0.2429
best
|
0.2412
best
|
0.6787
best
|
0.6753
best
|
0.584
best
|
| DraftKings | 583 |
0.2445
+0.0017
|
0.2447
+0.0036
|
0.6822
+0.0035
|
0.6826
+0.0073
|
0.578
−0.007
|
| BetOnline | 622 |
0.2450
+0.0021
|
0.2451
+0.0039
|
0.6831
+0.0044
|
0.6833
+0.0080
|
0.566
−0.019
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026