Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
WNBA — Moneyline (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 143 |
0.1911
+0.0042
|
0.1847
best
|
0.5644
+0.0105
|
0.5475
best
|
0.727
best
|
| Bookmaker | 141 |
0.1869
best
|
0.1870
+0.0023
|
0.5539
best
|
0.5539
+0.0064
|
0.723
−0.004
|
| BetOnline | 141 |
0.1901
+0.0032
|
0.1878
+0.0032
|
0.5619
+0.0080
|
0.5560
+0.0085
|
0.716
−0.011
|
| DraftKings | 138 |
0.1890
+0.0021
|
0.1916
+0.0070
|
0.5595
+0.0056
|
0.5658
+0.0183
|
0.715
−0.012
|
| FanDuel | 137 |
0.1902
+0.0033
|
0.1930
+0.0084
|
0.5621
+0.0082
|
0.5694
+0.0219
|
0.713
−0.014
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026