Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Moneyline (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker | 854 |
0.2376
+0.0001
|
0.2376
best
|
0.6676
+0.0002
|
0.6675
best
|
0.592
−0.005
|
| DraftKings | 855 |
0.2381
+0.0006
|
0.2376
+0.0000
|
0.6687
+0.0013
|
0.6677
+0.0001
|
0.593
−0.004
|
| BetOnline | 855 |
0.2378
+0.0003
|
0.2378
+0.0002
|
0.6681
+0.0007
|
0.6681
+0.0005
|
0.597
best
|
| FanDuel | 855 |
0.2377
+0.0002
|
0.2378
+0.0003
|
0.6679
+0.0005
|
0.6682
+0.0007
|
0.592
−0.005
|
| Circa | 855 |
0.2375
best
|
0.2379
+0.0003
|
0.6674
best
|
0.6683
+0.0008
|
0.588
−0.009
|
| Pinnacle | 855 |
0.2380
+0.0005
|
0.2379
+0.0004
|
0.6685
+0.0011
|
0.6684
+0.0008
|
0.590
−0.007
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026