Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Pitcher Strikeouts (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 1426 |
0.2471
+0.0012
|
0.2442
best
|
0.6873
+0.0025
|
0.6815
best
|
0.565
−0.003
|
| FanDuel | 1403 |
0.2458
best
|
0.2446
+0.0004
|
0.6848
best
|
0.6823
+0.0008
|
0.567
best
|
| DraftKings | 1437 |
0.2489
+0.0030
|
0.2469
+0.0027
|
0.6909
+0.0061
|
0.6870
+0.0055
|
0.549
−0.019
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026