Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Pitcher Strikeouts (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 4227 |
0.2468
+0.0006
|
0.2442
best
|
0.6867
+0.0013
|
0.6815
best
|
0.564
best
|
| BetOnline | 4282 |
0.2462
best
|
0.2447
+0.0005
|
0.6855
best
|
0.6825
+0.0010
|
0.562
−0.002
|
| DraftKings | 4275 |
0.2467
+0.0005
|
0.2464
+0.0022
|
0.6866
+0.0011
|
0.6859
+0.0045
|
0.557
−0.007
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026