Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Moneyline (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker | 2615 |
0.2433
best
|
0.2421
best
|
0.6794
best
|
0.6770
best
|
0.578
best
|
| FanDuel | 2666 |
0.2436
+0.0003
|
0.2427
+0.0006
|
0.6801
+0.0007
|
0.6783
+0.0013
|
0.576
−0.002
|
| DraftKings | 2665 |
0.2439
+0.0006
|
0.2427
+0.0006
|
0.6808
+0.0014
|
0.6784
+0.0014
|
0.576
−0.002
|
| BetOnline | 2666 |
0.2438
+0.0005
|
0.2429
+0.0007
|
0.6805
+0.0011
|
0.6786
+0.0016
|
0.573
−0.005
|
| Pinnacle | 2665 |
0.2437
+0.0004
|
0.2431
+0.0010
|
0.6803
+0.0010
|
0.6791
+0.0021
|
0.572
−0.005
|
| Circa | 2388 |
0.2441
+0.0008
|
0.2433
+0.0011
|
0.6810
+0.0016
|
0.6794
+0.0024
|
0.565
−0.012
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026