Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Moneyline (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 872 |
0.2375
+0.0006
|
0.2358
best
|
0.6675
+0.0014
|
0.6640
best
|
0.592
best
|
| DraftKings | 873 |
0.2368
+0.0000
|
0.2365
+0.0006
|
0.6662
best
|
0.6654
+0.0013
|
0.590
−0.002
|
| Bookmaker | 871 |
0.2368
best
|
0.2367
+0.0009
|
0.6662
+0.0000
|
0.6659
+0.0018
|
0.583
−0.009
|
| Circa | 814 |
0.2382
+0.0014
|
0.2375
+0.0017
|
0.6691
+0.0029
|
0.6676
+0.0035
|
0.586
−0.006
|
| Pinnacle | 814 |
0.2390
+0.0022
|
0.2379
+0.0021
|
0.6708
+0.0046
|
0.6684
+0.0043
|
0.583
−0.009
|
| BetOnline | 814 |
0.2391
+0.0023
|
0.2381
+0.0022
|
0.6709
+0.0047
|
0.6687
+0.0046
|
0.579
−0.013
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026