Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Spread (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 814 |
0.2213
+0.0018
|
0.2213
best
|
0.6344
+0.0038
|
0.6343
best
|
0.661
best
|
| BetOnline | 814 |
0.2208
+0.0013
|
0.2229
+0.0016
|
0.6334
+0.0027
|
0.6377
+0.0034
|
0.657
−0.004
|
| DraftKings | 873 |
0.2196
best
|
0.2232
+0.0019
|
0.6307
best
|
0.6383
+0.0040
|
0.655
−0.007
|
| Circa | 814 |
0.2220
+0.0025
|
0.2235
+0.0022
|
0.6358
+0.0051
|
0.6390
+0.0047
|
0.654
−0.007
|
| FanDuel | 872 |
0.2196
+0.0000
|
0.2239
+0.0026
|
0.6309
+0.0002
|
0.6399
+0.0056
|
0.649
−0.012
|
| Bookmaker | 871 |
0.2200
+0.0004
|
0.2247
+0.0034
|
0.6314
+0.0007
|
0.6414
+0.0072
|
0.652
−0.009
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026