Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Spread (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 187 |
0.2283
+0.0095
|
0.2263
best
|
0.6493
+0.0203
|
0.6449
best
|
0.636
best
|
| Circa | 187 |
0.2255
+0.0066
|
0.2297
+0.0034
|
0.6431
+0.0141
|
0.6520
+0.0071
|
0.625
−0.011
|
| DraftKings | 245 |
0.2277
+0.0089
|
0.2302
+0.0039
|
0.6477
+0.0186
|
0.6530
+0.0081
|
0.620
−0.016
|
| FanDuel | 244 |
0.2188
best
|
0.2305
+0.0041
|
0.6290
best
|
0.6536
+0.0088
|
0.621
−0.015
|
| Bookmaker | 245 |
0.2251
+0.0063
|
0.2308
+0.0044
|
0.6422
+0.0132
|
0.6542
+0.0094
|
0.617
−0.019
|
| BetOnline | 187 |
0.2266
+0.0078
|
0.2333
+0.0069
|
0.6456
+0.0166
|
0.6595
+0.0147
|
0.622
−0.015
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026