Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Moneyline (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 244 |
0.2293
+0.0023
|
0.2260
best
|
0.6504
+0.0046
|
0.6436
best
|
0.638
best
|
| DraftKings | 245 |
0.2275
+0.0005
|
0.2265
+0.0005
|
0.6467
+0.0009
|
0.6445
+0.0009
|
0.629
−0.010
|
| Bookmaker | 245 |
0.2270
best
|
0.2267
+0.0006
|
0.6458
best
|
0.6449
+0.0014
|
0.621
−0.017
|
| Circa | 187 |
0.2323
+0.0053
|
0.2295
+0.0035
|
0.6565
+0.0107
|
0.6507
+0.0071
|
0.623
−0.015
|
| Pinnacle | 187 |
0.2327
+0.0056
|
0.2300
+0.0040
|
0.6572
+0.0114
|
0.6517
+0.0082
|
0.614
−0.024
|
| BetOnline | 187 |
0.2318
+0.0048
|
0.2308
+0.0048
|
0.6556
+0.0098
|
0.6535
+0.0100
|
0.596
−0.043
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026