Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Moneyline (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circa | 182 |
0.2305
+0.0004
|
0.2279
best
|
0.6528
+0.0008
|
0.6474
best
|
0.635
best
|
| Pinnacle | 184 |
0.2308
+0.0007
|
0.2285
+0.0006
|
0.6534
+0.0014
|
0.6486
+0.0012
|
0.624
−0.011
|
| FanDuel | 196 |
0.2330
+0.0029
|
0.2291
+0.0012
|
0.6583
+0.0063
|
0.6499
+0.0026
|
0.633
−0.002
|
| BetOnline | 184 |
0.2301
best
|
0.2296
+0.0017
|
0.6520
best
|
0.6509
+0.0036
|
0.606
−0.029
|
| DraftKings | 195 |
0.2329
+0.0028
|
0.2313
+0.0035
|
0.6580
+0.0059
|
0.6546
+0.0073
|
0.614
−0.021
|
| Bookmaker | 195 |
0.2326
+0.0025
|
0.2314
+0.0035
|
0.6574
+0.0054
|
0.6547
+0.0074
|
0.622
−0.013
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026