Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Spread (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 187 |
0.2283
+0.0106
|
0.2263
best
|
0.6493
+0.0224
|
0.6449
best
|
0.636
best
|
| DraftKings | 187 |
0.2278
+0.0100
|
0.2306
+0.0042
|
0.6480
+0.0211
|
0.6539
+0.0091
|
0.626
−0.011
|
| FanDuel | 187 |
0.2178
best
|
0.2307
+0.0044
|
0.6269
best
|
0.6543
+0.0094
|
0.626
−0.011
|
| Bookmaker | 187 |
0.2246
+0.0068
|
0.2307
+0.0044
|
0.6412
+0.0144
|
0.6544
+0.0095
|
0.627
−0.009
|
| Circa | 185 |
0.2266
+0.0088
|
0.2309
+0.0046
|
0.6454
+0.0185
|
0.6545
+0.0096
|
0.621
−0.015
|
| BetOnline | 187 |
0.2266
+0.0088
|
0.2333
+0.0069
|
0.6456
+0.0187
|
0.6595
+0.0147
|
0.622
−0.015
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026