Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Moneyline (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker | 72 |
0.2452
+0.0100
|
0.2345
best
|
0.6870
+0.0235
|
0.6650
best
|
0.597
−0.014
|
| Pinnacle | 72 |
0.2437
+0.0085
|
0.2346
+0.0001
|
0.6841
+0.0206
|
0.6650
+0.0000
|
0.611
best
|
| FanDuel | 72 |
0.2352
best
|
0.2359
+0.0015
|
0.6635
best
|
0.6676
+0.0027
|
0.597
−0.014
|
| BetOnline | 72 |
0.2379
+0.0027
|
0.2362
+0.0017
|
0.6714
+0.0079
|
0.6687
+0.0038
|
0.597
−0.014
|
| DraftKings | 72 |
0.2372
+0.0020
|
0.2372
+0.0027
|
0.6657
+0.0022
|
0.6698
+0.0049
|
0.569
−0.042
|
| Circa | 72 |
0.2406
+0.0054
|
0.2373
+0.0028
|
0.6767
+0.0132
|
0.6708
+0.0058
|
0.569
−0.042
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026