Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Passing Interceptions (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 26 | — |
0.2422
best
|
— |
0.6775
best
|
0.600
best
|
| DraftKings | 146 |
0.2484
+0.0011
|
0.2483
+0.0061
|
0.6898
+0.0022
|
0.6898
+0.0124
|
0.510
−0.090
|
| BetOnline | 146 |
0.2472
best
|
0.2492
+0.0070
|
0.6876
best
|
0.6915
+0.0141
|
0.525
−0.075
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026