Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Spread (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 72 |
0.2514
+0.0056
|
0.2473
best
|
0.6960
+0.0112
|
0.6877
best
|
0.581
−0.008
|
| Pinnacle | 72 |
0.2458
best
|
0.2477
+0.0004
|
0.6848
best
|
0.6886
+0.0009
|
0.529
−0.059
|
| Bookmaker | 70 |
0.2497
+0.0039
|
0.2478
+0.0005
|
0.6925
+0.0077
|
0.6887
+0.0010
|
0.587
−0.001
|
| Circa | 71 |
0.2511
+0.0053
|
0.2491
+0.0019
|
0.6953
+0.0105
|
0.6914
+0.0038
|
0.588
best
|
| BetOnline | 69 |
0.2496
+0.0038
|
0.2498
+0.0025
|
0.6923
+0.0075
|
0.6927
+0.0050
|
0.469
−0.119
|
| DraftKings | 69 |
0.2513
+0.0054
|
0.2504
+0.0031
|
0.6957
+0.0109
|
0.6939
+0.0062
|
0.483
−0.105
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026