Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Total (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 73 |
0.2492
best
|
0.2474
best
|
0.6915
best
|
0.6879
best
|
0.648
−0.352
|
| FanDuel | 74 |
0.2492
+0.0000
|
0.2477
+0.0003
|
0.6916
+0.0001
|
0.6886
+0.0006
|
0.574
−0.426
|
| DraftKings | 74 |
0.2498
+0.0006
|
0.2492
+0.0018
|
0.6927
+0.0012
|
0.6916
+0.0037
|
0.536
−0.464
|
| BetOnline | 73 |
0.2499
+0.0007
|
0.2495
+0.0022
|
0.6929
+0.0013
|
0.6922
+0.0043
|
0.511
−0.489
|
| Bookmaker | 73 |
0.2500
+0.0008
|
0.2496
+0.0022
|
0.6931
+0.0016
|
0.6924
+0.0044
|
0.482
−0.518
|
| Circa | 73 |
0.2500
+0.0008
|
0.2499
+0.0025
|
0.6931
+0.0016
|
0.6929
+0.0049
|
1.000
best
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026