Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Total (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 107 |
0.2490
best
|
0.2476
best
|
0.6912
best
|
0.6883
best
|
0.614
−0.024
|
| Pinnacle | 105 |
0.2493
+0.0003
|
0.2478
+0.0002
|
0.6918
+0.0005
|
0.6886
+0.0003
|
0.637
best
|
| Bookmaker | 106 |
0.2501
+0.0010
|
0.2495
+0.0019
|
0.6933
+0.0020
|
0.6921
+0.0038
|
0.506
−0.131
|
| DraftKings | 107 |
0.2497
+0.0007
|
0.2496
+0.0020
|
0.6926
+0.0014
|
0.6923
+0.0040
|
0.527
−0.110
|
| BetOnline | 106 |
0.2502
+0.0012
|
0.2497
+0.0021
|
0.6936
+0.0024
|
0.6925
+0.0042
|
0.516
−0.121
|
| Circa | 105 |
0.2500
+0.0010
|
0.2500
+0.0024
|
0.6931
+0.0019
|
0.6932
+0.0048
|
0.500
−0.137
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026