Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Passing Interceptions (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 26 | — |
0.2422
best
|
— |
0.6775
best
|
0.600
best
|
| DraftKings | 212 |
0.2487
+0.0006
|
0.2496
+0.0074
|
0.6906
+0.0012
|
0.6924
+0.0149
|
0.505
−0.095
|
| BetOnline | 212 |
0.2481
best
|
0.2499
+0.0077
|
0.6894
best
|
0.6930
+0.0155
|
0.522
−0.078
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026