Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Passing Completions (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 146 |
0.2497
+0.0026
|
0.2483
best
|
0.6925
+0.0058
|
0.6897
best
|
0.517
−0.029
|
| BetOnline | 146 |
0.2471
best
|
0.2485
+0.0002
|
0.6866
best
|
0.6901
+0.0004
|
0.546
best
|
| FanDuel | 143 |
0.2482
+0.0011
|
0.2506
+0.0023
|
0.6896
+0.0030
|
0.6944
+0.0047
|
0.534
−0.012
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026