Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Passing Completions (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 212 |
0.2489
+0.0020
|
0.2479
best
|
0.6910
+0.0046
|
0.6889
best
|
0.526
−0.030
|
| BetOnline | 212 |
0.2469
best
|
0.2482
+0.0003
|
0.6864
best
|
0.6896
+0.0007
|
0.557
best
|
| FanDuel | 208 |
0.2498
+0.0029
|
0.2510
+0.0031
|
0.6927
+0.0063
|
0.6952
+0.0063
|
0.500
−0.057
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026