Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Receiving Yards (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 833 |
0.2500
+0.0001
|
0.2499
best
|
0.6932
+0.0002
|
0.6929
best
|
0.493
−0.009
|
| BetOnline | 794 |
0.2499
best
|
0.2500
+0.0002
|
0.6929
best
|
0.6932
+0.0003
|
0.502
best
|
| FanDuel | 831 |
0.2503
+0.0004
|
0.2503
+0.0004
|
0.6937
+0.0007
|
0.6938
+0.0009
|
0.310
−0.192
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026