Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Total (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 777 |
0.2486
+0.0020
|
0.2467
best
|
0.6904
+0.0040
|
0.6866
best
|
0.564
−0.019
|
| Circa | 774 |
0.2482
+0.0016
|
0.2467
+0.0000
|
0.6896
+0.0032
|
0.6866
+0.0000
|
0.583
best
|
| FanDuel | 872 |
0.2483
+0.0017
|
0.2474
+0.0007
|
0.6897
+0.0033
|
0.6879
+0.0013
|
0.546
−0.037
|
| Bookmaker | 833 |
0.2488
+0.0022
|
0.2480
+0.0013
|
0.6907
+0.0043
|
0.6891
+0.0025
|
0.539
−0.045
|
| DraftKings | 873 |
0.2466
best
|
0.2481
+0.0014
|
0.6864
best
|
0.6893
+0.0027
|
0.541
−0.042
|
| Pinnacle | 761 |
0.2493
+0.0027
|
0.2486
+0.0019
|
0.6918
+0.0054
|
0.6904
+0.0038
|
0.526
−0.057
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026