Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
WNBA — Moneyline (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 346 |
0.2034
+0.0033
|
0.1993
best
|
0.5941
+0.0084
|
0.5824
best
|
0.692
−0.003
|
| BetOnline | 344 |
0.2022
+0.0022
|
0.2004
+0.0011
|
0.5912
+0.0056
|
0.5855
+0.0031
|
0.695
best
|
| Bookmaker | 344 |
0.2001
best
|
0.2006
+0.0012
|
0.5856
best
|
0.5859
+0.0035
|
0.695
best
|
| DraftKings | 350 |
0.2014
+0.0013
|
0.2033
+0.0039
|
0.5888
+0.0032
|
0.5924
+0.0100
|
0.691
−0.004
|
| FanDuel | 348 |
0.2045
+0.0044
|
0.2044
+0.0051
|
0.5962
+0.0105
|
0.5952
+0.0129
|
0.688
−0.007
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026