Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
WNBA — Total (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 144 |
0.2498
+0.0001
|
0.2490
best
|
0.6927
+0.0001
|
0.6912
best
|
0.618
best
|
| BetOnline | 143 |
0.2497
best
|
0.2497
+0.0007
|
0.6926
best
|
0.6925
+0.0013
|
0.549
−0.069
|
| Bookmaker | 144 |
0.2502
+0.0004
|
0.2498
+0.0008
|
0.6935
+0.0009
|
0.6927
+0.0015
|
0.527
−0.091
|
| Pinnacle | 142 |
0.2502
+0.0004
|
0.2500
+0.0010
|
0.6935
+0.0009
|
0.6932
+0.0020
|
0.527
−0.091
|
| FanDuel | 144 |
0.2500
+0.0003
|
0.2506
+0.0016
|
0.6932
+0.0007
|
0.6944
+0.0032
|
0.479
−0.140
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026