Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
WNBA — Spread (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 144 |
0.2496
+0.0001
|
0.2485
best
|
0.6923
+0.0001
|
0.6902
best
|
0.558
−0.021
|
| Bookmaker | 144 |
0.2504
+0.0009
|
0.2491
+0.0006
|
0.6940
+0.0019
|
0.6913
+0.0011
|
0.579
best
|
| BetOnline | 144 |
0.2503
+0.0008
|
0.2491
+0.0006
|
0.6937
+0.0015
|
0.6914
+0.0012
|
0.565
−0.015
|
| Pinnacle | 142 |
0.2499
+0.0004
|
0.2497
+0.0012
|
0.6929
+0.0008
|
0.6926
+0.0024
|
0.547
−0.033
|
| DraftKings | 144 |
0.2495
best
|
0.2501
+0.0016
|
0.6921
best
|
0.6933
+0.0031
|
0.516
−0.064
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026