Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
WNBA — Spread (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker | 345 |
0.2501
+0.0007
|
0.2495
best
|
0.6933
+0.0015
|
0.6922
best
|
0.523
−0.013
|
| FanDuel | 356 |
0.2494
best
|
0.2496
+0.0001
|
0.6919
best
|
0.6924
+0.0002
|
0.515
−0.021
|
| Pinnacle | 342 |
0.2500
+0.0007
|
0.2497
+0.0002
|
0.6932
+0.0014
|
0.6925
+0.0003
|
0.531
−0.005
|
| BetOnline | 353 |
0.2503
+0.0010
|
0.2497
+0.0002
|
0.6938
+0.0019
|
0.6926
+0.0005
|
0.536
best
|
| DraftKings | 356 |
0.2497
+0.0004
|
0.2503
+0.0008
|
0.6926
+0.0007
|
0.6938
+0.0016
|
0.498
−0.038
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026