Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — 3-Pointers Made (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-26| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 479 |
0.2423
best
|
0.2400
best
|
0.6776
best
|
0.6730
best
|
0.593
best
|
| DraftKings | 479 |
0.2423
+0.0000
|
0.2436
+0.0036
|
0.6777
+0.0001
|
0.6803
+0.0074
|
0.583
−0.010
|
| BetOnline | 510 |
0.2431
+0.0008
|
0.2446
+0.0046
|
0.6793
+0.0016
|
0.6824
+0.0095
|
0.578
−0.015
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026