Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Total (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 735 |
0.2500
+0.0001
|
0.2496
best
|
0.6931
+0.0003
|
0.6924
best
|
0.539
best
|
| Bookmaker | 740 |
0.2501
+0.0003
|
0.2497
+0.0001
|
0.6933
+0.0005
|
0.6926
+0.0001
|
0.536
−0.003
|
| FanDuel | 747 |
0.2499
+0.0001
|
0.2498
+0.0001
|
0.6930
+0.0002
|
0.6927
+0.0003
|
0.488
−0.051
|
| BetOnline | 735 |
0.2502
+0.0004
|
0.2499
+0.0003
|
0.6935
+0.0007
|
0.6930
+0.0006
|
0.537
−0.002
|
| Circa | 735 |
0.2500
+0.0002
|
0.2500
+0.0004
|
0.6931
+0.0003
|
0.6931
+0.0007
|
|
| DraftKings | 747 |
0.2498
best
|
0.2501
+0.0005
|
0.6928
best
|
0.6934
+0.0010
|
0.498
−0.041
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026