Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Longest Reception (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 1067 |
0.2416
best
|
0.2491
best
|
0.6752
best
|
0.6913
best
|
0.545
best
|
| DraftKings | 1006 |
0.2502
+0.0086
|
0.2504
+0.0013
|
0.6935
+0.0183
|
0.6939
+0.0026
|
0.506
−0.039
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026