Simulated Circle
Specialist
Aggressive
Created Feb 28, 2026
Performance
Record (W-L-P)
39-32-3
Win Rate
54.9%
ROI
+13.1%
Units
+9.66
Avg CLV
+0.25%
CLV Rate
60.8%
Predictions History (74)
| Date | League | Period | Game | Prediction | Odds | Book | CLV | Time ET | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | NFL | Full Game | DAL @ PHI |  Eagles Over 43.5 |
-115 | DraftKings | -0.2% | 18:00:28 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 26 | NFL | Full Game | DAL @ PHI | Eagles ML |
+200 | Circa | -0.8% | 18:02:34 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Oct 25 | NFL | Full Game | CIN @ BAL |  Ravens +3 |
-110 | Circa | +0.0% | 10:58:55 | L (-1.10 Units) |
| Oct 25 | NFL | Full Game | MIA @ NYJ |  Dolphins ML |
+182 | Bookmaker | -0.6% | 10:58:39 | W (+1.82 Units) |
| Oct 25 | NFL | Full Game | NYG @ HOU |  Giants +10.5 |
-107 | Pinnacle | +1.8% | 11:00:35 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 25 | NFL | Full Game | CLE @ TEN |  Titans Over 36.5 |
-118 | DraftKings | -0.2% | 11:00:04 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 25 | NFL | Full Game | MIA @ NYJ |  Jets Over 39.5 |
-102 | DraftKings | +0.7% | 11:00:32 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 25 | NFL | Full Game | IND @ MIN |  Colts +7.5 |
-123 | Pinnacle | -1.3% | 10:57:22 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 22 | NFL | Full Game | NE @ CHI |  Patriots +3 |
-108 | Pinnacle | +1.6% | 18:01:55 | L (-1.08 Units) |
| Oct 22 | NFL | Full Game | NE @ CHI |  Bears Under 50.5 |
+100 | Pinnacle | +1.2% | 18:00:45 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Oct 19 | NFL | Full Game | WAS @ SF |  49Ers Under 52.5 |
-115 | DraftKings | +1.7% | 18:00:39 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 19 | NFL | Full Game | WAS @ SF |  Commanders ML |
+345 | Circa | -0.4% | 17:57:52 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Oct 18 | NFL | Full Game | BAL @ CLE |  Browns ML |
+153 | Pinnacle | -1.0% | 10:58:36 | W (+1.53 Units) |
| Oct 18 | NFL | Full Game | PIT @ TB |  Buccaneers Over 38.5 |
-105 | FanDuel | +0.5% | 10:59:11 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 18 | NFL | Full Game | NYJ @ NE | Jets +7.5 |
-112 | DraftKings | +0.1% | 10:58:35 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 18 | NFL | Full Game | CAR @ PHI | Eagles Over 38.5 |
-115 | FanDuel | +2.2% | 10:59:55 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 18 | NFL | Full Game | BAL @ CLE | Browns Over 39.5 |
-105 | FanDuel | +1.2% | 10:59:36 | L (-1.05 Units) |
| Oct 18 | NFL | Full Game | CHI @ ATL |  Falcons Under 52 |
-116 | Bookmaker | +0.5% | 10:58:47 | L (-1.16 Units) |
| Oct 15 | NFL | Full Game | SEA @ DEN |  Broncos +2.5 |
-102 | Bookmaker | +0.7% | 17:58:04 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 15 | NFL | Full Game | SEA @ DEN | Broncos Over 40.5 |
-106 | Pinnacle | +0.9% | 17:58:38 | L (-1.06 Units) |
| Oct 15 | NFL | Full Game | SEA @ DEN | Broncos ML |
+130 | Circa | -1.2% | 19:00:46 | W (+1.30 Units) |
| Oct 12 | NFL | Full Game | BUF @ LAR |  Bills +3.5 |
-114 | Pinnacle | +0.2% | 17:59:41 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 12 | NFL | Full Game | BUF @ LAR |  Rams Under 54.5 |
-101 | Pinnacle | +0.5% | 18:01:34 | L (-1.01 Units) |
| Oct 11 | NFL | Full Game | CIN @ MIA | Dolphins +7 |
-105 | FanDuel | +0.9% | 10:59:32 | P (+0 Units) |
| Oct 11 | NFL | Full Game | NYG @ WAS | Giants ML |
+169 | Bookmaker | +0.2% | 10:57:27 | P (+0 Units) |
| Oct 11 | NFL | Full Game | HOU @ TEN | Titans Over 37.5 |
-110 | Pinnacle | -0.5% | 10:59:19 | L (-1.10 Units) |
| Oct 11 | NFL | Full Game | HOU @ TEN | Titans +6.5 |
-102 | Pinnacle | +1.7% | 10:59:09 | L (-1.02 Units) |
| Oct 11 | NFL | Full Game | CLE @ NYJ | Jets Over 38.5 |
-105 | BetOnline | +1.4% | 10:57:48 | L (-1.05 Units) |
| Oct 11 | NFL | Full Game | NYG @ WAS | Commanders Over 41.5 |
-108 | Bookmaker | -0.2% | 10:58:48 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 08 | NFL | Full Game | TB @ DAL |  Cowboys Under 48.5 |
+101 | Pinnacle | +2.6% | 17:59:49 | W (+1.01 Units) |
| Oct 08 | NFL | Full Game | TB @ DAL | Buccaneers +9.5 |
-112 | DraftKings | -0.4% | 18:00:09 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 05 | NFL | Full Game | ATL @ NO |  Saints ML |
-115 | Pinnacle | -2.3% | 18:01:15 | L (-1.15 Units) |
| Oct 05 | NFL | Full Game | ATL @ NO | Saints Under 48 |
-110 | Pinnacle | +1.4% | 18:01:27 | L (-1.10 Units) |
| Oct 04 | NFL | Full Game | GB @ TB | Buccaneers Over 38.5 |
-110 | Bookmaker | +1.4% | 10:59:39 | L (-1.10 Units) |
| Oct 04 | NFL | Full Game | GB @ TB | Buccaneers ML |
+145 | DraftKings | +0.8% | 10:57:34 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Oct 04 | NFL | Full Game | NE @ BUF | Patriots +7 |
-115 | Circa | +0.0% | 11:00:15 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 04 | NFL | Full Game | JAX @ CIN |  Bengals Under 52 |
-108 | Pinnacle | +2.3% | 10:58:48 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 04 | NFL | Full Game | LAR @ PHI | Eagles ML |
+164 | DraftKings | -1.7% | 10:58:40 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Oct 04 | NFL | Full Game | TEN @ BAL | Titans +11.5 |
-105 | Pinnacle | +1.2% | 10:59:36 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 01 | NFL | Full Game | PIT @ CLE | Browns Over 37.5 |
-109 | Pinnacle | +1.9% | 17:59:07 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 01 | NFL | Full Game | PIT @ CLE | Browns +3 |
-119 | Pinnacle | -2.0% | 18:01:52 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 28 | NFL | Full Game | PHI @ CHI | Bears ML |
+172 | Bookmaker | -1.4% | 17:57:18 | W (+1.72 Units) |
| Sep 28 | NFL | Full Game | PHI @ CHI | Bears Over 42 |
-111 | Bookmaker | +1.4% | 17:58:41 | L (-1.11 Units) |
| Sep 27 | NFL | Full Game | TEN @ NYG | Giants Over 37.5 |
-105 | Bookmaker | +1.4% | 11:00:29 | L (-1.05 Units) |
| Sep 27 | NFL | Full Game | NYJ @ DET | Jets +7 |
-115 | Pinnacle | +0.0% | 10:58:18 | P (+0 Units) |
| Sep 27 | NFL | Full Game | CAR @ CLE | Browns Over 41.5 |
-115 | DraftKings | -1.1% | 10:58:10 | L (-1.15 Units) |
| Sep 27 | NFL | Full Game | LAC @ BUF |  Chargers +7.5 |
-117 | Pinnacle | -0.1% | 10:57:42 | L (-1.17 Units) |
| Sep 27 | NFL | Full Game | SEA @ WAS | Commanders Over 40 |
-110 | Circa | +1.0% | 11:00:41 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 27 | NFL | Full Game | CIN @ PIT |  Steelers ML |
+160 | DraftKings | +0.3% | 10:59:52 | W (+1.60 Units) |
| Sep 24 | NFL | Full Game | ATL @ GB |  Packers Over 43 |
-108 | Pinnacle | +0.5% | 18:01:19 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 24 | NFL | Full Game | ATL @ GB | Falcons ML |
+210 | Pinnacle | -1.2% | 19:01:37 | W (+2.10 Units) |
| Sep 24 | NFL | Full Game | ATL @ GB | Falcons +5.5 |
-115 | DraftKings | +1.3% | 18:00:12 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 21 | NFL | Full Game | NYG @ LAR | Giants +7 |
-117 | Pinnacle | -1.0% | 18:01:18 | L (-1.17 Units) |
| Sep 21 | NFL | Full Game | NYG @ LAR | Giants ML |
+260 | BetOnline | -1.1% | 19:01:11 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Sep 21 | NFL | Full Game | NYG @ LAR | Rams Under 47.5 |
-107 | Pinnacle | +1.6% | 17:57:55 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 20 | NFL | Full Game | NO @ BAL | Saints +9 |
-118 | Pinnacle | +0.2% | 11:01:58 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 20 | NFL | Full Game | CLE @ TB | Browns +9 |
-115 | Pinnacle | +2.3% | 11:02:31 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 20 | NFL | Full Game | PHI @ TEN | Titans +7.5 |
-119 | Pinnacle | -0.3% | 10:58:50 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 20 | NFL | Full Game | GB @ NYJ | Jets ML |
+154 | DraftKings | -0.3% | 10:59:54 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Sep 20 | NFL | Full Game | CLE @ TB | Buccaneers Over 41.5 |
-102 | FanDuel | +1.4% | 11:00:46 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 20 | NFL | Full Game | PHI @ TEN | Titans Over 39.5 |
-110 | Circa | +0.0% | 11:00:41 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 17 | NFL | Full Game | DET @ BUF | Bills Under 55 |
-108 | Pinnacle | +1.2% | 17:59:25 | L (-1.08 Units) |
| Sep 17 | NFL | Full Game | DET @ BUF |  Lions +5.5 |
-104 | Pinnacle | +1.4% | 17:59:53 | L (-1.04 Units) |
| Sep 14 | NFL | Full Game | DEN @ KC |  Chiefs Over 42.5 |
-110 | Circa | +0.2% | 17:59:54 | L (-1.10 Units) |
| Sep 13 | NFL | Full Game | CLE @ JAX |  Jaguars Over 40 |
-108 | Bookmaker | +0.9% | 10:58:29 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 13 | NFL | Full Game | NYJ @ TEN | Titans Over 38.5 |
-107 | Bookmaker | +4.0% | 11:01:36 | L (-1.07 Units) |
| Sep 13 | NFL | Full Game | CLE @ JAX | Browns +9.5 |
-111 | Bookmaker | +3.1% | 10:58:53 | L (-1.11 Units) |
| Sep 13 | NFL | Full Game | CHI @ CAR |  Panthers ML |
+145 | BetOnline | -0.6% | 10:59:09 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Sep 13 | NFL | Full Game | NO @ DET | Saints +7 |
-104 | Pinnacle | +1.8% | 11:00:38 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 13 | NFL | Full Game | ATL @ PIT | Steelers Over 40.5 |
-110 | Circa | +0.2% | 10:58:15 | L (-1.10 Units) |
| Sep 10 | NFL | Full Game | SF @ LAR | 49Ers ML |
+175 | Circa | -1.2% | 18:01:27 | W (+1.75 Units) |
| Sep 10 | NFL | Full Game | SF @ LAR | Rams Under 48.5 |
-118 | DraftKings | +1.1% | 18:00:30 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 09 | NFL | Full Game | NE @ SEA | Patriots +3.5 |
-120 | FanDuel | -1.9% | 17:43:25 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 09 | NFL | Full Game | NE @ SEA |  Seahawks Over 44 |
-104 | Pinnacle | +2.6% | 17:47:25 | L (-1.04 Units) |
Showing – of
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Strategy
Prediction Source
Consensus
Edge Threshold
3.5%
Consensus Type
Average Probability
Prediction Models
Poisson Reactive
Fast-adapting Poisson that responds quickly to offensive and defensive trend shifts.
Ridge Reactive
Fast-reweighting Ridge that emphasizes recent offensive and defensive production.
XGBoost Score Standard
Gradient-boosted score predictor using team stats for spread and total forecasting.