Fortress Federation
Specialist
Conservative
Created Mar 20, 2026
Performance
Record (W-L)
10-9
Win Rate
52.6%
ROI
+0.2%
Units
+0.04
Avg CLV
-0.05%
CLV Rate
42.1%
Predictions History (19)
| Date | League | Period | Game | Prediction | Odds | Book | CLV | Time ET | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 05 | CBB | Full Game | TLSA @ AUB |  Auburn ML |
-245 | Bookmaker | -0.5% | 18:00:09 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Apr 04 | CBB | Full Game | MICH @ ARIZ | Arizona ML |
-101 | Pinnacle | +0.4% | 17:57:28 | L (-1.01 Units) |
| Apr 04 | CBB | Full Game | ILL @ CONN | UConn ML |
+115 | Bookmaker | -1.2% | 15:57:37 | W (+1.15 Units) |
| Apr 02 | CBB | Full Game | UNM @ TLSA | Tulsa +3.5 |
-115 | FanDuel | +2.2% | 16:59:43 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Apr 02 | CBB | Full Game | ILST @ AUB | State +8.5 |
-118 | DraftKings | +1.1% | 19:57:37 | L (-1.18 Units) |
| Mar 29 | CBB | Full Game | CONN @ DUKE | Duke ML |
-229 | Pinnacle | -1.9% | 15:02:23 | L (-2.29 Units) |
| Mar 28 | CBB | Full Game | PUR @ ARIZ | Purdue ML |
+232 | Pinnacle | -1.6% | 17:57:33 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Mar 27 | CBB | Full Game | TENN @ ISU | State ML |
-170 | Bookmaker | -3.4% | 20:00:15 | L (-1.70 Units) |
| Mar 27 | CBB | Full Game | SJU @ DUKE | John's +6.5 |
-104 | Pinnacle | +1.4% | 16:58:35 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Mar 26 | CBB | Full Game | TEX @ PUR | Purdue -7.5 |
-120 | FanDuel | +1.2% | 16:58:35 | L (-1.20 Units) |
| Mar 26 | CBB | Full Game | ILL @ HOU | Houston ML |
-136 | Pinnacle | -0.4% | 19:58:37 | L (-1.36 Units) |
| Mar 25 | CBB | Full Game | ILST @ DAY | State ML |
+280 | Circa | -1.5% | 17:00:41 | W (+2.80 Units) |
| Mar 24 | CBB | Full Game | WICH @ TLSA | State +4.5 |
-115 | DraftKings | +0.0% | 17:00:55 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Mar 22 | CBB | Full Game | UK @ ISU | State ML |
-216 | Pinnacle | -1.1% | 12:57:24 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Mar 22 | CBB | Full Game | MIA @ PUR | Purdue ML |
-352 | Bookmaker | -1.2% | 10:01:01 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Mar 21 | CBB | Full Game | HP @ ARK | Point +12 |
-115 | Bookmaker | -2.8% | 18:59:59 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Mar 21 | CBB | Full Game | TCU @ DUKE | TCU +12.5 |
-104 | Pinnacle | +2.9% | 14:57:36 | L (-1.04 Units) |
| Mar 20 | CBB | Full Game | SCU @ UK | Kentucky ML |
-150 | Bookmaker | +0.2% | 09:59:00 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Mar 20 | CBB | Full Game | AKR @ TTU | Akron +7.5 |
-113 | Bookmaker | +2.0% | 10:00:27 | L (-1.13 Units) |
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Strategy
Prediction Source
Consensus
Edge Threshold
13.5%
Consensus Type
Majority Vote
Prediction Models
Glicko Fresh Season
Season-reset Glicko-2 that wipes uncertainty each year for clean early-season reads.
XGBoost Classifier
Gradient-boosted tree classifier using advanced team features for win probability.
Elo Standard
Classic Elo rating system with balanced parameters for steady power rankings.